PCE Pushes Equities, Cuts into Interest Rate Hike Changes as Oil Flows Improve

• August Core PCE inflation (month-over-month and year-over-year) was lighter than expected, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in October to 37.1%.
• ADP private payrolls grew by 90,000 in September, exceeding estimates and showing broad gains across various company sizes and industries, despite some losses in financial and professional services.
• Second-quarter GDP was revised upward to 2.2%, and personal consumption expenditures also saw an upward revision, indicating continued economic resilience.
• Crude oil prices are up, but yields are lower, with Middle East oil flows reported at 98% of pre-Iran war levels, raising questions about future price trends.

The video analyzes recent economic data, highlighting that August Core PCE inflation came in lighter than expected, which significantly reduced the probability of an October interest rate hike. Additionally, private payrolls grew more than anticipated in September, and second-quarter GDP was revised upward, signaling a resilient economy and positive market sentiment.