Future shares fall 12% as buyback pause weighs despite Peel Hunt backing

• Second-half trading progressed as expected with 2026 consensus forecasts of £707 million revenue and £180 million adjusted EBITDA
• £24 million of the £30 million buyback completed before pausing the final £6 million to focus on deleveraging in FY2027
• Peel Hunt forecasts 2027 net debt of around £305 million and expects leverage to fall below one times earnings by 2028, supported by strong cash generation

Summary

Future plc (LSE:FUTR) shares fell 12% following a trading update that included a pause in its share buyback program, despite maintaining analyst support from Peel Hunt.

Key Financial Data:

• Peel Hunt maintained a "buy" rating with a 535p price target
• 2026 revenue consensus: £707 million
• 2026 adjusted EBITDA: £180 million
• Share buyback: £24 million of £30 million completed; remaining £6 million paused
• Projected 2027 net debt: approximately £305 million
• Expected leverage: below 1x earnings by 2028

Strategic Focus:

Future announced it would pause the final £6 million of its buyback program to prioritize debt reduction during the 2027 financial year. The company reported that second-half trading progressed largely as expected.

Analyst Perspective:

Peel Hunt described the update as "light but comforting" and backed management's decision to focus on deleveraging. The broker removed the remaining £6 million buyback from its assumptions, increasing projected share count. Profit forecasts remained broadly unchanged, with the reduced buyback offset by the SheerLuxe acquisition earn-out.

Market Implications:

The significant 12% share price decline suggests investors reacted negatively to the buyback suspension, viewing it as a signal of potential financial constraint despite analyst reassurance. The company's emphasis on debt reduction over shareholder returns indicates a more conservative financial strategy. Peel Hunt's continued "buy" recommendation and confidence in Future's cash generation capabilities suggest long-term fundamentals remain intact, with leverage expected to improve significantly by 2028.