OPEC+ seen holding oil output targets steady at Sunday meeting, sources say

• Seven core OPEC+ members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman) are meeting to review targets, with no changes expected for November after keeping October targets steady
• Gulf producers produced 25.0 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July but still approximately 5 million bpd below pre-war levels in February due to Iran war disruptions
• OPEC+ completed rolling back a 1.65 million bpd supply cut in September and maintains additional cuts of about 2 million bpd through end of 2026, awaiting a capacity review before setting 2027 baselines

OPEC+ Expected to Maintain November Oil Output Targets

Key Decision: OPEC+ is likely to keep oil production targets unchanged for November at its Sunday meeting, according to two anonymous sources familiar with the matter. No final decision has been confirmed.

Meeting Participants: The online gathering includes seven core OPEC+ members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will also convene Sunday to review market conditions, though it lacks policy-making authority.

Production Data:

• The seven core producers output 25.0 million barrels per day (bpd) in August
• This represents a 630,000 bpd increase from July
• Current production remains roughly 5 million bpd below pre-war February levels
• Gulf producers are pumping significantly below their targets despite disrupted exports from the Iran war

Recent Policy Context: OPEC+ has raised output targets throughout the year but held steady for October. In September, the group completed a phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut originally agreed in 2023. An additional 2 million bpd in production cuts remains in place through end-2026 for most members.

Future Outlook: The group is shifting focus toward 2027 quota negotiations. Reuters previously reported OPEC+ would likely maintain current targets through Q4. Setting 2027 baselines requires finalizing a production capacity review, with consultant DeGolyer and MacNaughton expected to submit its assessment soon.

Market Implications: Steady output targets suggest OPEC+ is prioritizing stability amid ongoing Middle East conflict disruptions rather than aggressive supply adjustments, potentially supporting oil prices in the near term while the group addresses longer-term quota frameworks.