Oil rises after Trump denies easing Iran sanctions

Reuters | September 30, 2026 at 01:49 AM UTC
Bullish 81% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Brent crude is headed for a 14% rise in September (highest since July) while WTI is on track for a 4% gain after breaching $106 for the first time since May
  • Trump denied offering Iran sanctions relief or releasing frozen funds in exchange for nuclear program concessions, contradicting earlier reports from US officials
  • Middle East crude oil exports rebounded to 16.328 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began in late February

AI Summary

Oil Rises on Trump Sanctions Denial, Geopolitical Tensions

Oil prices climbed Wednesday after President Trump denied reports of potential Iran sanctions relief, following diplomatic efforts by Qatar. Brent crude rose $1.14 (1.11%) to $103.73 per barrel, while WTI gained $0.34 (0.38%) to $89.72.

Key Market Movements:

  • Brent is tracking a 14% gain for September, its largest monthly increase since July and highest level since May
  • WTI is on pace for a 4% monthly rise, having briefly exceeded $106
  • The Brent-WTI spread widened to its largest gap in four months

Geopolitical Developments:

Trump rejected an Axios report suggesting he would offer Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds in exchange for nuclear concessions, stating "I offered them NOTHING" on Truth Social. Qatar meanwhile announced ongoing shuttle diplomacy between the US and Iran, working to establish common ground and avoid conflict repercussions.

Supply Situation:

Middle East crude exports rebounded to 16.328 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the US-Israeli-Iran conflict began in February. Saudi Arabia resumed shipments from its Yanbu Red Sea port after restarting the East-West Pipeline. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest levels since February.

Market Constraints:

Concerns about potential US diesel export restrictions continued pressuring WTI, with fears that domestic oversupply could lead refiners to reduce crude processing. US crude inventories rose 1.02 million barrels last week according to API data, though official EIA figures are pending.

Analysts noted markets remain volatile with expensive and constrained oil logistics despite recovering flows.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bullish 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 78%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 81%