Week ahead: Jobs, inflation and Fed speakers in focus

• September nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by just 60,000, down sharply from August's 162,000 gain, while unemployment is forecast to hold at 4.1% and average hourly earnings to increase 0.4%
• Core PCE inflation expected to rise 0.27% in August, with BEA's annual benchmark revisions potentially lowering July's year-over-year reading by two to three tenths
• Second-quarter GDP growth expected to be revised down to 1.5% from 2.1%, with revisions potentially changing the economic growth picture dating back to 2021

Week Ahead: Jobs, Inflation and Fed Speakers in Focus

Key Economic Events:

US investors face a critical week with multiple high-stakes economic releases centered on labor market data and inflation metrics.

Labor Market Data:

• Tuesday: August job openings and labor turnover data
• Wednesday: ADP private payrolls expected to show 85,000 jobs added, up from 38,000 previously
• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims forecast at 200,000 versus 197,000 prior
• Friday (Main Event): September jobs report expecting 60,000 nonfarm payrolls, down sharply from August's 162,000 gain. Private payrolls also forecast at 60,000 versus 127,000 previously

The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%, though the August unrounded rate of 4.14% could push it to 4.2% with modest labor force participation changes. Average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.4% from 0.3%.

GDP and Inflation:

Wednesday brings the third estimate of Q2 GDP, revised down to 1.5% from 2.1%. This release includes important Bureau of Economic Analysis annual benchmark revisions affecting growth data back to 2021.

August personal income and spending data will also be released, with core PCE inflation expected at 0.27% versus 0.25% previously. Methodology changes may complicate interpretation and could lower July's year-over-year core PCE by two to three tenths.

Federal Reserve Commentary:

Multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak Wednesday and Thursday, with particular focus on a Thursday discussion between NY Fed President John Williams and Governor Lisa Cook, who hold differing rate path views.

Market Implications:

Stronger labor data and sticky inflation could drive Treasury yields higher, while weaker employment or softer inflation may provide relief as Q4 begins.