US holiday online sales seen rising 6.7% as discounts lure shoppers, Adobe says

• Cyber Monday expected to generate $15 billion in sales (up 6.2%) with discounts peaking at 30%, particularly on electronics and computers
• Black Friday online sales projected to rise 9.2% to $12.9 billion, offering best deals on TVs, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture
• Adobe's forecast is based on analysis of over 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories

Summary: US Holiday Online Sales Forecast to Rise 6.7%

Adobe Analytics projects US online holiday sales will increase 6.7% during the November-December period, reaching $275.1 billion compared to $257.8 billion in the previous year. The growth rate remains nearly flat year-over-year, reflecting cautious consumer spending amid elevated household costs.

Key Shopping Day Forecasts:

• Cyber Monday: Expected to generate the highest spending at $15 billion (up 6.2% from last year's 7.1% growth), with peak discounts reaching 30%, particularly on electronics and computers
• Black Friday: Online sales projected to rise 9.2% to $12.9 billion, following last year's 9.1% increase; best deals anticipated for TVs, toys, apparel, appliances, and furniture
• Thanksgiving: Online sales growth forecast at 8.5%, up from 5.3% the prior year

Market Context:

Major retailers including Macy's, Kohl's, and American Eagle Outfitters have expressed concerns about consumer spending capacity heading into the critical holiday season, which drives year-end sales performance. Shoppers are becoming increasingly selective and value-conscious due to higher living costs, making promotional strategies crucial for retailers.

Adobe's forecast is based on comprehensive data analysis of over 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories, providing robust statistical foundation for the projections.

Implications:

The modest growth rate suggests a challenging retail environment where aggressive discounting will be essential to attract budget-conscious consumers, with e-commerce remaining a key battleground for holiday sales performance.