Yields to Keep Climbing on US-Iran Stalemate: Market Analysis

• Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are boosting oil prices, which in turn puts upward pressure on bond yields.
• US 10-year yields are near 5.2%, but strong US economic activity and 'tech exceptionalism' (e.g., chipmakers, Meta) are supporting equity resilience.
• Financial conditions in the US are currently looser than 1- and 5-year averages, suggesting rates are not yet a material headwind for stocks, with Q4 expected to be seasonally strong.

Rising oil prices, fueled by US-Iran tensions, are pushing bond yields higher, with the US 10-year yield near its highest since 2007. Despite this, the analyst expects US equities to maintain resilience, driven by strong economic activity, tech exceptionalism, and robust Q4 earnings estimates, as financial conditions are not yet tight enough to be a material headwind.