Next six months will be most important for inflation, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
CNBC Television
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September 24, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
Bullish
85% Confidence
Watch on YouTube
Key Points
- Rising yields are currently competing with stocks but also benefit stronger companies like the 'Mag 7' by making competition tougher for others.
- Inflation is expected to decline in the next six months due to changes in PCE methodology (potentially lowering year-over-year by 20-40 basis points), fading tariff effects, and stable oil prices around $100.
- If inflation declines as predicted, the Fed could become less hawkish, providing a positive catalyst for the market.
AI Summary
Fundstrat's Tom Lee believes that despite current rising yields, inflation is highly likely to decline in the next six months due to methodology changes and fading effects from tariffs and flash memory. He suggests that this could lead the Fed to walk back its hawkish stance, benefiting stronger companies and allowing the market to breathe a sigh of relief.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 85% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 85% |