Hope fades for new Boeing deal at US-China summit, sources say

• Boeing had initially discussed a deal for hundreds of jets ahead of the spring summit but only secured 200 aircraft in May, which remains unfinalized
• The Thursday summit agenda prioritizes extending the trade truce, AI safeguards, Taiwan arms sales, and commodity flows over new aircraft deals
• Airbus has gained market share in China through its Tianjin assembly line and more stable China-Europe relations, while Boeing faces both political headwinds and internal operational challenges

Market Summary: Boeing-China Deal Prospects Dim Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

Key Development:

Hopes for new Chinese aircraft orders from Boeing are fading ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi summit, with the planemaker now focused on finalizing a previously announced 200-jet deal rather than securing additional commitments, according to sources briefed on negotiations.

Background & Figures:

• Boeing has been effectively shut out of Chinese orders since 2017, while European rival Airbus has expanded its market share
• China is expected to order approximately 9,000 new jets by 2045, representing the largest regional demand globally
• A May summit produced a smaller-than-expected 200-plane deal, down from discussions of up to several hundred additional aircraft
• US Trade Representative reports about 140 of those 200 orders are "in a good state," with another 10 being finalized

Market Implications:

Industry analyst Richard Aboulafia noted "it will be a victory if the 200 airplane order can be saved," indicating lowered expectations. Boeing's CEO Kelly Ortberg downplayed prospects for new deals last week, describing the May agreement as a "downpayment" with market reopening as the primary achievement.

Summit Priorities:

The Thursday meeting focuses primarily on extending the trade truce (already extended two months beyond its November 10 expiration), AI safeguards, Taiwan weapons sales, and commodity trade deals involving soybeans and rare earth minerals. China specialists say new jetliner deals are not a top priority.

Competitive Landscape:

Airbus maintains advantages through its Tianjin final assembly line and more stable China-Europe relations. Boeing faces headwinds from geopolitical tensions and internal operational issues that have diminished its regional influence.

Companies: Boeing, Airbus