Trump faces Xi as strains with allies complicate U.S. pressure on China

• Public confidence in U.S. reliability has fallen sharply among allies, with Canada invited as the first 'strategic partner' of the EU as it seeks reduced reliance on Washington
• China controls roughly 70% of global rare-earth mining and over 87% of refining, forcing U.S. manufacturers like Boeing to halt production and creating a new pressure point against American industry
• A delayed $14 billion arms package for Taiwan serves as a 'negotiating chip' with Xi, raising concerns among Asian allies that Trump may soften U.S. support for Taiwan in exchange for economic concessions

Summary: Trump-Xi Summit Amid Weakened U.S. Alliance Network

President Trump begins a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, facing a China that has become increasingly difficult to isolate as traditional U.S. allies seek greater independence between Washington and Beijing.

Key Developments:

China's global trade surplus is projected to exceed $1 trillion for the second consecutive year in 2025, despite declining exports to the U.S. Beijing has deepened international trade relationships and developed leverage through control of rare earth minerals—commanding roughly 70% of global mining and over 87% of refining capacity.

Strained Alliances:

Pew Research Center polling shows confidence in U.S. reliability has fallen sharply among allies. Trump's disputes over defense spending, tariffs on Canada, and tensions regarding Greenland have weakened traditional partnerships. Canada was recently invited as the EU's first "partnership country," signaling reduced reliance on Washington.

Strategic Pressure Points:

The U.S. retains advantages through semiconductor technology controls and manufacturing equipment restrictions that limit China's access to advanced chips. However, China's rare earth export controls last year forced production shutdowns, including a week-long halt at a Chicago Boeing plant.

Critical Issues at Stake:

• A delayed $14 billion arms package for Taiwan remains pending, which Trump has called a "negotiating chip"
• Iran mediation efforts test China's ability to convert relationships into geopolitical influence
• The current trade truce expires November 10
• Bilateral India-China trade reached record $155.6 billion in 2025, demonstrating Beijing's success at maintaining relationships despite U.S. pressure

Experts suggest Trump's transactional approach and alliance strains have reduced Washington's ability to build the unified front traditionally used to pressure Beijing.