Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Saudi Supply Risk Eases as Qatar LNG Shortage Deepens

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restart will gradually restore up to 4 million barrels per day capacity over 6-8 weeks, reducing reliance on ship-to-ship transfers near Oman that had increased tanker rates to over $30 per barrel between the Persian Gulf and China
• Qatar's LNG output lost 17% capacity due to attacks on Ras Laffan facilities, with affected plants requiring three years to repair, fundamentally tightening natural gas markets more severely than crude
• Natural gas broke above $3.00 technical resistance with $3.05 as next target, while WTI crude tests support at $88.68 and Brent holds above $97.41 amid descending channel pressure

Summary

Key Developments

Saudi Arabia resumed operations on its East-West pipeline on September 23, 2026, following drone attacks on September 11 that damaged three pumping stations. The pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and previously carried 4 million barrels per day, is being gradually restarted with full capacity restoration expected within 6-8 weeks.

Supply Disruption Impact

The pipeline shutdown forced Saudi Arabia to increase Gulf exports and utilize ship-to-ship transfers near Oman to maintain crude supply. Benchmark tanker rates between the Persian Gulf and China exceeded $30 per barrel due to heightened transportation costs. The Strait of Hormuz remains vulnerable, with only two ships carrying commodity trade on one recent day compared to ten the previous day.

Natural Gas Crisis

Qatar faces severe LNG supply constraints after attacks on Ras Laffan facilities eliminated 17% of the nation's LNG output. QatarEnergy reported the two affected plants will require three years to repair, creating a fundamentally tighter natural gas market compared to crude oil.

Market Outlook

Crude Oil: Neutral to moderately bullish for Brent and WTI. WTI trading near $88.95 with support at $88.68 and resistance at $91.37. Brent at $98.18 with support at $97.41 and resistance at $99.33.

Natural Gas: Moderately bullish. NG broke above $3.00 resistance, currently trading at $3.02 with next upside target at $3.05. Moving crude is significantly easier than natural gas, amplifying LNG supply concerns.

The pipeline restart removes short-term Saudi supply constraints, though Hormuz disruptions and Qatar's LNG shortage continue to present market risks.