Iran floats conditions for Hormuz reopening as Trump says deal could come after midterms

• Confirmed transits through Hormuz averaged 6.98 million barrels per day in the week ending Sept. 20, down from 18.3 million barrels daily before the conflict, while Iran's crude exports have fallen to zero in September from 893,000 barrels per day in July
• Trump stated at the UN General Assembly he faces a choice between a deal or military action, and expects an agreement after November midterm elections, calling the talks with Iranian envoys 'very good'
• Oil prices pulled back on diplomatic hopes, with Brent crude falling 0.9% to $98.37 per barrel and WTI down 1.5% to $89.16, as an interim peace agreement that collapsed in July remains unresolved

Summary

Key Development: Iran has communicated conditions for ending a seven-month conflict and potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz through Qatari-mediated negotiations with the U.S. in New York.

Iran's Conditions:

• Halt to U.S. "acts of aggression"
• End to naval blockade and economic warfare
• Release of Iranian assets

A senior Iranian official indicated the strait could reopen within a week if the U.S. eases military pressure and lifts port blockades.

Strategic Importance: The Strait of Hormuz previously carried approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments before the conflict began.

Current Shipping Data:

• Confirmed transits averaged 6.98 million barrels/day (seven days to Sept. 20)
• Represents only 38% of the 18.3 million barrel/day pre-war baseline
• Iranian crude loadings fell to zero in September from 893,000 barrels/day in July
• The strait has become "increasingly a Saudi-controlled shuttle corridor"

Political Context: President Trump addressed the situation at the UN General Assembly, stating he faces a choice between diplomatic resolution and military action. He expressed confidence in reaching a deal after November's midterm elections, noting U.S. officials held "very good" meetings with Iranian envoys.

Market Impact: Oil prices declined on diplomatic optimism:

• Brent crude: down 0.9% to $98.37/barrel
• WTI crude: down 1.5% to $89.16/barrel

Background: An interim peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran collapsed in July, weeks after signing. No timeline has been established for the next negotiation round.