Saudi crude oil exports hit 4-month high in July, data shows

• Saudi crude production jumped significantly to 8.135 million bpd in July from 7.122 million bpd in June
• UBS analyst notes that July export gains reflected moderated regional tensions, but expects weaker August figures due to renewed Houthi activity affecting Red Sea terminals
• Saudi refinery crude throughput decreased slightly to 2.478 million bpd, while direct crude-burning dropped by 22,403 bpd to 561,097 bpd

Summary: Saudi Crude Oil Exports Rise to 4-Month High in July

Key Figures:

Saudi Arabian crude oil exports increased 3.3% month-over-month to 4.125 million barrels per day (bpd) in July 2026, marking the highest level since March, according to Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) data released September 22.

Crude production surged significantly to 8.135 million bpd from 7.122 million bpd in June. However, Saudi refinery crude throughput declined slightly to 2.478 million bpd from 2.498 million bpd, while direct crude-burning decreased by 22,403 bpd to 561,097 bpd.

Market Context:

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo attributed the export increase to moderating regional tensions in July but warned that August figures could weaken, particularly from Red Sea terminals, due to renewed Houthi-related conflicts.

Geopolitical Risks:

Several factors threaten supply stability:

• Houthi fighters advanced on strategic positions in Yemen, targeting areas controlled by Saudi-backed forces
• Drone attacks forced closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline on September 13, though exports were expected to resume from the Red Sea port of Yanbu
• Iran indicated it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if U.S. military pressure eases
• Reports suggest President Trump called off strikes against Houthi groups

Implications:

While July data shows improved Saudi export capacity, ongoing regional instability poses significant risks to sustained supply levels. The combination of increased production capacity and geopolitical volatility creates an uncertain outlook for crude markets, with Red Sea shipping routes particularly vulnerable to disruption.