Saudi crude oil exports hit four-month high in July, data shows

• Saudi crude production jumped over 1 million bpd month-over-month, from 7.122 million bpd in June to 8.135 million bpd in July
• UBS analyst noted exports increased as regional tensions moderated in July, but warned of potential August weakness from Red Sea disruptions
• Saudi refinery throughput declined slightly to 2.478 million bpd, while direct crude-burning dropped by 22,403 bpd to 561,097 bpd

Saudi Crude Oil Exports Rise to Four-Month High in July

Key Figures:

Saudi Arabian crude oil exports increased 3.3% month-over-month to 4.125 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, marking the highest level since March, according to Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) data released September 22. Crude production surged to 8.135 million bpd from 7.122 million bpd in June.

Production and Refining Activity:

Refinery crude throughput declined slightly to 2.478 million bpd from 2.498 million bpd in June. Direct crude-burning decreased by 22,403 bpd to 561,097 bpd during the same period.

Market Context:

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo attributed the July export increase to moderating regional tensions. However, he warned that August exports could weaken, particularly from Red Sea terminals, due to renewed conflicts involving Houthi fighters.

Geopolitical Risks:

Multiple regional tensions threaten supply stability:

• Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline was shut down on September 13 following drone attacks, with exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu expected to resume
• Houthi fighters advanced on strategic positions in Yemen to isolate the Red Sea coast from Saudi-backed forces
• Iranian officials claimed capability to close the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if pressure eases

Market Implications:

While July's export increase signals stronger Saudi output, ongoing geopolitical volatility in the region—including pipeline disruptions and potential chokepoint closures—presents significant supply risk for global oil markets. The concentration of exports through vulnerable Red Sea routes amplifies concern for traders monitoring Middle Eastern supply stability.