Global biofuel output to jump nearly 70% by 2030 due to Gulf energy crisis, study finds

• Land needed for biofuel feedstocks could more than double by 2030 compared to 2023, requiring an additional 36 million hectares (roughly the size of Germany)
• Major producers including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the US, and the EU have raised biofuel blending mandates since the Iran war began, with crude oil prices rising nearly 40% since late February
• Researchers warn that prioritizing short-term energy security through first-generation biofuels may worsen food insecurity and deforestation, as demand rises faster than environmental safeguards can be implemented

Summary: Global Biofuel Output to Surge 70% by 2030

Key Findings:

Global biofuels production is projected to jump nearly 70% by 2030 from 2025 levels, driven by heightened energy security concerns following the Iran war, according to a study by Chatham House and the Forest Stewardship Council.

Major Developments:

Countries including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the United States, and the European Union have proposed or adopted higher biofuel blending mandates since the conflict began. These policies aim to reduce fossil fuel dependency as crude oil prices have risen approximately 40% since late February.

Critical Concerns:

The study warns that meeting increased biofuel demand could more than double the land required for feedstock production by 2030 compared to 2023—requiring an additional 36 million hectares (roughly Germany's size). This expansion risks exacerbating food insecurity and deforestation.

First-generation biofuels, made from food crops like corn and sugarcane, pose particular concerns for land degradation, food security, and water use. Corn and sugar prices have already increased about 20% since the war began.

Market Implications:

The rapid implementation of biofuel mandates may outpace environmental safeguards and enforcement mechanisms. Authors caution that prioritizing short-term energy security could create medium-term food insecurity, with extreme weather events potentially triggering severe food price spikes.

Second-generation biofuels from organic residues and waste materials present a more sustainable alternative, though conventional biofuels remain dominant in current production.

The study highlights a critical tension between energy security objectives and sustainable development goals, with significant implications for agricultural commodity markets, land use policy, and food prices globally.