Week Ahead: Trump-Xi meeting puts trade back in the spotlight

• Trade, tariffs, Taiwan and AI expected to dominate Trump-Xi agenda, with potential announcements on Chinese purchases of U.S. goods including Boeing aircraft
• Multiple Fed officials speak throughout the week as markets seek clarity on further tightening plans after last week's rate hike amid continued inflation concerns
• Treasury Department conducts second long-end buyback Wednesday in 20- to 30-year sector; Costco earnings Thursday and Meta's two-day Connect event starting Wednesday are key corporate events

Market Summary: Trump-Xi Meeting and Fed Policy Take Center Stage

Key Event: President Trump will host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House on Thursday, marking the week's primary market catalyst. Trade, tariffs, Taiwan, and artificial intelligence will dominate discussions, with potential announcements on Chinese purchases of U.S. goods, including Boeing aircraft.

Federal Reserve Focus: Following last week's 25 basis point rate hike, multiple Fed speakers are scheduled throughout the week. Chair Kevin Warsh signaled ongoing inflation concerns and potential for further tightening. Speaking engagements include Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (Monday), Vice Chairs Philip Jefferson and John Williams (Tuesday), Governor Michael Barr (Wednesday), and regional presidents Thursday-Friday. Investors seek clarity on future rate trajectory and inflation outlook.

Market Conditions: Kathleen Brooks of XTB noted markets are in a "strange position" entering final Q3 weeks, with volatility concentrated in sovereign bonds. U.S. and European yields rose last week despite falling oil prices.

Economic Data: Light calendar includes new home sales Thursday (Wells Fargo forecasts 2.6% rise to 623,000 annualized pace), durable goods orders Friday, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment Friday. Treasury conducts second long-end buyback Wednesday in the 20-30 year sector.

Corporate Events: Costco earnings Thursday represent the week's most-watched release. Meta Platforms hosts two-day Connect event Wednesday focusing on AI and virtual reality updates. McDonald's holds investor day Wednesday. Other earnings include Darden Restaurants, Cintas, Paychex, General Mills, AutoZone, and BlackBerry.

Market Implications: Geopolitical developments and monetary policy direction will likely overshadow the thin economic calendar, with trade negotiations and bond market movements driving volatility.