Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Saudi Exports Recover as Hormuz Risks Persist

• Saudi exports have recovered to 4+ million barrels/day from August's 2.4 million, but only 12 tankers passed through Hormuz last week with flows relying heavily on costly workarounds near Oman
• Logistics costs on certain alternative routes have reached as high as $30 per barrel, meaning physical flow recovery does not signal full market normalization
• QatarEnergy reports LNG output remains at 'very minute' volumes, potentially delaying infrastructure expansion projects and tightening global natural gas supply

Summary: Natural Gas and Oil Forecast - Saudi Exports Recover as Hormuz Risks Persist

Key Developments

Saudi Arabia has successfully restored oil exports to over 4 million barrels per day following infrastructure disruptions, a significant recovery from August's 2.4 million barrels daily. Despite this positive development, the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained, with only 12 tankers observed transiting last week, though approximately 34 million barrels may have moved through unreported channels.

Market Challenges

Gulf producers are implementing costly workarounds including shuttle tankers and ship-to-ship transfers near Oman. Reuters reports Hormuz flows have recovered to normal levels, but logistics costs have surged to $30 per barrel on certain routes. This means physical supply recovery doesn't equate to full market normalization.

Natural Gas Situation

QatarEnergy reports "very minute" LNG output volumes. Without resolution of the Hormuz situation, Qatar may further restrict LNG production and delay infrastructure expansion projects. Natural gas markets are expected to remain tight, with increased U.S. export opportunities emerging.

Technical Outlook

• Natural Gas: Trading at $2.88 with support at $2.84 and resistance at $2.91; neutral RSI suggests range-bound trading
• WTI Crude (USOIL): At $93.93 after breaking $94.76 support; next support at $91.73
• Brent Crude (UKOIL): Trading at $101.63, testing $101.20 support with resistance at $102.76

Market Implications

Fundamental bias: USOIL and UKOIL neutral-to-bullish; Natural Gas bullish. Upcoming U.N. meetings may provide diplomatic breakthroughs. Markets remain nervous despite improved export flows due to elevated geopolitical risks and transportation costs.