How Trump and Xi moved from tariff war to trade truce

• Tariffs escalated dramatically in April 2025, with U.S. duties reaching 145% and Chinese tariffs hitting 125% before a May 2025 Geneva agreement reduced them to 30% and 10% respectively with a 90-day pause extended through August.
• China has used rare-earth export controls as leverage throughout the conflict, widening restrictions in October 2025, while the U.S. imposed export controls on critical software and threatened curbs on Boeing parts.
• The February 2026 U.S. Supreme Court ruling struck down Trump's emergency tariffs on China, forcing him to use a different statute to impose a temporary 10% global duty, adding legal uncertainty to the trade dispute.

Summary: US-China Trade Relations Timeline and Upcoming White House Meeting

Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet President Trump at the White House on September 24, 2026, as a fragile trade truce set to expire in November hangs in the balance.

Key Timeline of Events:

The trade conflict escalated sharply in early 2025 when Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods over fentanyl concerns, which China countered with levies on US coal, LNG, crude oil, and autos. By March, Trump doubled tariffs to 20%; China retaliated with 10-15% duties on $21 billion worth of US agriculture exports.

April 2025 marked peak tensions with "Liberation Day" tariffs. US tariffs on China surged from 34% to 125%, with China matching at 125%. Beijing restricted rare-earth exports and issued US travel warnings.

De-escalation Efforts:

May 2025 Geneva talks produced a 90-day pause, reducing US tariffs from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs from 125% to 10%. This pause was extended another 90 days in August. An October 2025 South Korea summit yielded a trade truce with Trump reducing tariffs in exchange for Chinese action on fentanyl, resumed soybean purchases, and paused rare-earth controls.

Recent Developments:

February 2026 saw the Supreme Court strike down Trump's emergency tariffs. Trump visited Beijing in May 2026, announcing new Boards of Trade and Investment, with China committing to Boeing aircraft and farm product purchases. July 2026 brought new 12.5% tariffs on 60 countries, including China, over forced labor allegations.

Market Outlook:

Expectations for major breakthroughs remain tempered, though investors are closely monitoring for signs of truce extension beyond November.