Kloza on Diesel Prices Hit Fresh Record-High

Bloomberg Markets and Finance | September 18, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
Bearish 90% Confidence
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Key Points

  • Diesel prices have reached new all-time highs, 60 cents above the previous record set in June 2022.
  • US refineries are operating at 97-98% capacity, but global refining capacity is down by about 7 million barrels/day, largely due to drone attacks.
  • High diesel prices could lead to demand destruction and an economic slowdown, with heating oil costs in the Northeast projected to be 20-30% higher this winter.
  • An export ban on diesel is considered a 'nuclear option' that could flush speculative money out of the market, but permitting reform for new refineries would take 1.5 years or more.

AI Summary

Tom Kloza, Gulf Oil Chief Oil Advisor, highlights that diesel prices have hit fresh record-highs, surpassing previous records by 60 cents. He emphasizes that while crude oil prices are often the focus, it's the diesel and gasoline bulk markets that truly need watching. Kloza warns of a potential economic slowdown due to demand destruction and anticipates the most expensive heating season in the Northeast by 20-30%.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 90%
Consensus Bearish 90%