Equities & Bonds Face "Critical Juncture" with Fed's Rate Decision & Guidance

• The Fed is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points today, with market probabilities for September, October, and December meetings all above 90%.
• The focus for market impact will be on the Fed's forward projections and commentary, rather than the immediate rate decision itself.
• A small risk of the Fed holding rates could lead to a substantial rise in longer-term yields and questions about Fed credibility.
• Key technical levels are being watched, including the S&P 500 at 7600 and the Russell 2000 at a three-month low, with the 10-year yield's reaction to the 5% level being crucial.

The discussion centers on the upcoming FOMC rate decision, with a 25 basis point hike largely priced in. The key market driver will be the Fed's forward guidance and projections, especially regarding longer-term rates. Technical levels for major indices are at critical junctures, adding to market uncertainty.