KG: Ecodata Complicates Fed's Rate Direction, Wall Street Bakes in 25 Bps Hike

• A 25 bps Fed rate hike is 'baked in' for today, with the market's reaction largely dependent on the Fed's forward-looking commentary (hawkish vs. dovish).
• August retail sales data showed stronger-than-expected month-over-month growth across core and control groups, indicating a resilient consumer, though not inflation-adjusted.
• Import prices, including non-fuel goods and capital goods, saw significant increases, suggesting persistent price pressures that could favor a hawkish stance from the Fed.
• J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) revised its guidance downward due to rising diesel prices impacting margins and demand, highlighting potential economic headwinds.

The discussion focuses on the upcoming FOMC decision, with a 25 basis point rate hike largely priced into the markets. The key uncertainty lies in the Fed's commentary, which could either be dovish (positive for equities) or hawkish (potential for pullbacks). Recent strong retail sales and rising import prices complicate the Fed's path, indicating a resilient consumer and persistent inflationary pressures.