CNBC Fed Survey: Expect more than one hike

• 76% of survey respondents expect a Fed rate hike at the upcoming meeting.
• 55% expect more than one hike this year, and 86% expect at least one hike this year, a significant increase from last month.
• The average CPI outlook has risen to around 3.5% for 2026 and 2.85% for 2027, up from previous forecasts.
• Economic conditions (above-potential GDP, low unemployment) are incompatible with the current Fed policy rate, suggesting further action is needed.
• The market, particularly the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, is pricing in expectations for more significant tightening.

A CNBC Fed Survey suggests that the central bank is 'not just one and done' with rate hikes this year. A majority of respondents anticipate further tightening, with inflation outlooks for 2026 and 2027 rising. This indicates a need for the Fed to continue slowing the economy, as current conditions are seen as incompatible with the Fed's policy rate.