Everything Is Now Bullish for Treasuries: 3-Minutes MLIV

Bloomberg Markets and Finance | September 14, 2026 at 07:45 AM UTC
Bullish 95% Confidence
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Key Points

  • AI CapEx bubble has been the most important market theme for the past two years, driving growth and stock markets.
  • A slowdown or 'deflation' in AI CapEx, potentially due to increased regulation, would be a 'momentous moment' for markets.
  • This potential AI slowdown, coupled with a likely Fed hike this week, high oil prices, and elevated Treasury yields, creates a 'bullish impetus' for Treasuries.

AI Summary

The discussion centers on the potential slowdown of the AI capital expenditure bubble, which has been a major driver for global stock markets and US GDP. While this could be negative for growth and jobs, the analyst believes it signals a 'bullish turning point' for Treasuries, especially when combined with other factors like a likely Fed hike and high oil prices.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 95%
Consensus Bullish 95%