China's oil ‘relief valve' is starting to close, squeezing oil markets: Dan Pickering

• The Iran War is expected to continue for at least a couple of years, keeping oil prices high.
• China has shifted from using internal oil inventories back to importing crude, which will further tighten global oil markets.
• Venezuela's increased oil production is a long-term prospect (2030 target) and won't significantly impact current high prices.
• The risk of Houthi disruptions in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, potentially affecting 4 million barrels per day, is not yet priced into the market.

Dan Pickering expects oil prices to remain elevated due to the ongoing Iran conflict, which he believes will last for a couple of years. He highlights China's return to oil imports after drawing down inventories and the increasing risk of disruptions in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by Houthis as key factors tightening global oil markets. Venezuela's potential oil output increase is seen as a long-term solution, not impacting current prices.