OPEC+ expected to keep oil output policy unchanged Sunday, sources say

• OPEC+ completed its phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut in September, but the group still produces far below targets due to ongoing conflict
• The group has additional production cuts in place covering most of its 21 member countries through the end of 2026
• OPEC+ needs to review members' oil production capacity to set 2027 output baselines before unwinding cuts, a debate expected later in 2026

OPEC+ Expected to Maintain Oil Output Policy Unchanged

Key Decision: OPEC+ is set to keep its oil output policy unchanged for October at its Sunday meeting, according to two sources familiar with the discussions. The producer group needs to finalize new production quotas before determining future output adjustments.

Current Production Status: In August, OPEC+ completed its September production increase, rolling back a 1.65 million barrel-per-day supply cut initially implemented in 2023. However, the 21-country coalition—comprising OPEC members and allies including Russia—continues producing significantly below agreed targets due to ongoing conflict disruptions.

Market Context: The meeting occurs amid continued Iranian conflict disrupting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which has limited OPEC's influence over prices and overall market control. This geopolitical tension has weakened the group's traditional market leverage.

Outstanding Cuts: OPEC+ maintains an additional layer of production cuts affecting most member countries through the end of 2026. Before unwinding these cuts and returning production to markets, the group must review members' oil production capacity to establish 2027 output baselines, which serve as the foundation for individual country quotas.

Looking Ahead: The critical debate over production capacity reviews and 2027 baselines is expected later in 2026. Consequently, sources indicate OPEC+ will likely maintain current policy through the fourth quarter of 2026.

Market Implications: The decision to hold policy steady reflects the complexity of balancing supply management with geopolitical disruptions. The ongoing Iranian situation and quota review process suggest continued market uncertainty and limited near-term supply adjustments from the producer group.