August jobs numbers overstate economy's strength, says Moody's Mark Zandi
CNBC Television
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September 04, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
Neutral
95% Confidence
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Key Points
- August jobs number (162K) overstates economy's strength; monthly job growth closer to 50K, primarily in healthcare.
- Workers' real wages are slowly but steadily eroding, with average hourly earnings year-over-year at +3.1%.
- The Fed's decision will hinge on the upcoming CPI report, with core CPI expected to be soft (around +0.1% to +0.2% M/M, +2.3% to +2.4% Y/Y).
- Zandi advocates for the Fed to hold rates steady, not raise them, citing anchored inflation expectations.
AI Summary
Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics states that the August jobs report overstates the economy's strength, with underlying job growth closer to 50K and real wages eroding. He believes the Fed should focus on the upcoming soft core CPI report and hold interest rates steady, rather than raising them, as inflation expectations remain anchored.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Neutral | 95% |
| Consensus | Neutral | 95% |