OPEC+ likely to keep oil output policy unchanged Sunday, sources say

• OPEC+ completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023, though actual output has lagged planned increases due to conflicts disrupting Gulf, Russian, and Kazakh exports
• A capacity review by DeGolyer and MacNaughton is expected to be submitted to OPEC at the end of September, potentially leading to difficult negotiations over 2027 production baselines
• Quota disputes continue as some members push for higher allocations reflecting increased capacity, with the UAE having left OPEC in May over quota disagreements and Venezuela reportedly considering an exit

OPEC+ Expected to Maintain Oil Output Policy Unchanged

OPEC+ is likely to keep its oil output policy unchanged for October at a meeting scheduled for Sunday, September 2, according to three sources close to the matter. The decision comes as the producer group completes unwinding one layer of production cuts this month and shifts focus to contentious 2027 quota negotiations.

Key Meeting Details:

• Seven core OPEC+ members will participate: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman
• Virtual meeting scheduled for 11:00 GMT Sunday
• Members have been raising monthly production quotas throughout most of the year

Production Cut Status:

This month's increase completes the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. However, actual output has lagged planned quota increases due to conflicts in Iran and Ukraine disrupting exports from the Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan. OPEC+ maintains another layer of production cuts affecting most of the 21-country group through end-2026.

Market Implications:

• Ongoing Iran conflict continues disrupting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, weakening OPEC+'s market influence
• The group faces difficult negotiations ahead for 2027 production baselines

Future Outlook:

Texas-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton is expected to submit its quota review report to OPEC at end-September, setting the stage for year-end negotiations on new production baselines. Some members, including the UAE (which left OPEC in May), have pushed for higher quotas reflecting increased production capacity. Venezuela is also reportedly considering an exit from the organization.