Crude Oil Pulls Back, 10-Year Yield Hits 2-Year Highs as U.S.-Iran Tensions Rise

• 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.80%, hitting two-year highs, impacting housing and small businesses.
• ADP private payrolls rose by 38,000 in August, below the 47,000 estimate, with mixed results across different business sizes and industries.
• Crude oil futures pulled back from five-week highs, after hitting over $92 overnight, while US-Iran tensions remain a factor.
• Fed rate hike probabilities for September increased from 37% to over 60% in a week, indicating a rapid shift in market expectations.

The discussion focuses on key market indicators, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting two-year highs, impacting housing and small businesses. Mixed ADP private payroll data for August 2026 and fluctuating crude oil prices are also highlighted, contributing to a sense of market uncertainty and potential tension regarding future Fed rate hikes.