Harvard's Ken Rogoff on growing U.S. deficit: We will have some kind of debt crisis

• Rogoff notes that interest rates are 'low sometimes, until they're not,' challenging the 'low forever' academic consensus and highlighting the difficulty in predicting real interest rates.
• He supports the Treasury managing debt duration and the Fed shrinking its balance sheet, aligning with Kevin Warsh's views on central bank mission creep.
• Rogoff predicts a US debt crisis, financial repression, or inflation in the next 5-10 years, stemming from internal political unwillingness to balance the budget, which poses a threat to the dollar's reserve currency status.

Harvard's Ken Rogoff discusses the rising US Treasury yields, attributing them to various factors beyond just growth, including global populism and geopolitical events. He advocates for the Treasury to take a more active role in debt management and warns of a potential US debt crisis, financial repression, or inflation in the next 5-10 years due to political unwillingness to balance the budget, which could threaten the dollar's reserve currency status.