India sees weakest monsoon in nearly two decades as El Nino strengthens

• Rainfall deficit has worsened from an 8% shortfall in initial projections to an expected 15% below average for the June-September season, with September forecasted to see double-digit deficits
• Weak September rains could damage summer crops (cotton, soybean, corn, pulses) and deplete soil moisture needed for winter crops (wheat, rapeseed), potentially forcing export restrictions as in past El Nino years
• Seasonal rainfall was 35.4% below average in June, briefly recovered to 1% surplus in July, then weakened again with August running 15% below average as El Nino strengthens

Summary: India Faces Weakest Monsoon in Nearly Two Decades

India is experiencing its weakest monsoon season since 2009, with rainfall projected to end 15% below the long-term average for the June-September period, according to senior India Meteorological Department (IMD) sources. This marks a significant deterioration from the initial 8% deficit forecast.

Key Figures:

• Seasonal rainfall expected at 85% of normal levels (15% deficit)
• Overall deficit since June 1: 13% below average
• June rainfall: 35.4% below average
• July rainfall: 1% surplus
• August rainfall: 15% below average

Primary Cause:

The strengthening El Niño weather pattern is suppressing rainfall across India and is expected to intensify further in September, potentially causing double-digit rainfall deficits in the crucial crop-maturing month.

Economic Impact:

The weak monsoon threatens India's fifth-largest global economy, as monsoon rains provide approximately 70% of annual rainfall. Key concerns include:

• Reduced yields for summer crops (cotton, soybean, corn, pulses)
• Depleted soil moisture for winter crops (wheat, rapeseed)
• Rising food prices
• Decreased rural incomes

Outlook:

Most regions except some eastern states will likely receive below-average September rainfall, widening the seasonal deficit. The monsoon may withdraw from northwestern areas earlier than the typical September 17 start date. Historically, El Niño years have resulted in below-average rainfall and sometimes severe droughts, forcing India to restrict grain exports.