David Rosenberg on whether he would bet against long-term Treasuries

• Treasury Secretary Bessent believes the US deficit has likely peaked and the $40T debt figure is not 'magic,' citing fiscal consolidation and temporary tariff funds.
• David Rosenberg attributes the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields (e.g., 10-year from below 4% to 4.736%) to geopolitical risk (war), Fed uncertainty on inflation targets, and increased long-dated issuance by hyperscalers for AI spending.
• Rosenberg suggests the Treasury may need to intervene with a 'big bazooka' (similar to Ben Bernanke's quantitative easing) to prevent 10-year Treasury yields from reaching 5%.

The discussion analyzes Treasury Secretary Bessent's optimistic view on the US deficit peaking and the $40T debt not being 'magic.' David Rosenberg largely agrees on the deficit but argues that rising long-term Treasury yields are driven by factors beyond fiscal policy, such as geopolitical risk, Fed uncertainty, and corporate long-dated issuance, suggesting potential future government intervention.