Sam Burns on Fed's Direction Amid Volatile Risks & TSLA, MSTR, SMCI Outlook

• Equity risk model is neutral, indicating slowing momentum in volatile stocks and a rotation in market leadership.
• Fed expectations are a significant headwind, with the market pricing in potential rate hikes and uncertainty surrounding future policy.
• The VIX is considered too low, suggesting the market is underpricing risk, especially given underlying volatility and high earnings expectations.
• Identifies Supermicro (SMCI) as a buy idea due to rising earnings estimates and favorable price action, while Strategy Inc A (MSTR) and Tesla (TSLA) are listed as avoid ideas.

Sam Burns of Mill Street Research discusses his firm's neutral equity risk model, citing slowing momentum in volatile stocks and a rotation in market leadership. He highlights Fed expectations and uncertainty as a major headwind, suggesting the market may be underpricing risk. Despite a cautious outlook, he identifies specific buy and avoid ideas.