The bond market is finally working the way it should work, says Ed Yardeni
CNBC Television
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August 18, 2026 at 12:46 PM UTC
Bullish
90% Confidence
Watch on YouTube
Key Points
- German 30-year bond yield hit a 15-year high (3.779%), and the US 30-year Treasury yield is near a 20-year high (5.330%), which Yardeni considers a return to 'normal' 4-5% levels seen pre-2008.
- Yardeni views rising bond yields as a vote of confidence in the economy's strength, driven by 'FEMO' (Fabulous Earnings Momentum) from strong corporate earnings.
- He is bullish on equities, raising his year-end S&P 500 target to 8,400 (from 8,250) and maintaining a 10,000 target by the end of the decade, suggesting a 'Roaring 2020s' scenario.
- Key concerns include geopolitics, oil prices, and government debt/deficits, but the economy's resilience from hyper-scaler capital spending and baby boomer wealth provides support.
AI Summary
Ed Yardeni discusses rising German and US bond yields, viewing them as a return to a 'normal' 4-5% range and a vote of confidence in the economy's strength. He maintains a bullish outlook on equities, coining 'FEMO' (Fabulous Earnings Momentum) for the current 'Roaring 2020s', and has raised his S&P 500 target to 8,400 by year-end.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 90% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 90% |