The bond market is finally working the way it should work, says Ed Yardeni

CNBC Television | August 18, 2026 at 12:46 PM UTC
Bullish 90% Confidence
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Key Points

  • German 30-year bond yield hit a 15-year high (3.779%), and the US 30-year Treasury yield is near a 20-year high (5.330%), which Yardeni considers a return to 'normal' 4-5% levels seen pre-2008.
  • Yardeni views rising bond yields as a vote of confidence in the economy's strength, driven by 'FEMO' (Fabulous Earnings Momentum) from strong corporate earnings.
  • He is bullish on equities, raising his year-end S&P 500 target to 8,400 (from 8,250) and maintaining a 10,000 target by the end of the decade, suggesting a 'Roaring 2020s' scenario.
  • Key concerns include geopolitics, oil prices, and government debt/deficits, but the economy's resilience from hyper-scaler capital spending and baby boomer wealth provides support.

AI Summary

Ed Yardeni discusses rising German and US bond yields, viewing them as a return to a 'normal' 4-5% range and a vote of confidence in the economy's strength. He maintains a bullish outlook on equities, coining 'FEMO' (Fabulous Earnings Momentum) for the current 'Roaring 2020s', and has raised his S&P 500 target to 8,400 by year-end.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 90%