Treasury 30-Year Yields Are Back at 2007 Highs

• The long end of the bond market is fragile due to competition from strong equities, hyperscalers, and fiscal policy concerns, leading to a 'fiscal risk premium'.
• The US Treasury is likely to continue issuing short-term paper (T-bills, 1-2 year) and may reduce ultra-long paper issuance to manage refinancing risk.
• Japan's 10-year yield has risen to a 30-year high, driven by government pressure on domestic investors to buy bonds and the Bank of Japan's potential tightening, which is seen as key to Yen support.

The discussion highlights the fragility of the global bond market, particularly the long end, with US Treasury yields reaching pre-global financial crisis highs. Factors contributing to this include strong equity performance, competition from hyperscalers, and concerns over fiscal policy. The Bank of Japan's potential tightening and its impact on Japanese yields are also noted as significant global drivers.