Volatility Trends in NDX Options & Relationship to SPX
Schwab Network
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August 16, 2026 at 06:01 PM UTC
Bullish
85% Confidence
Watch on YouTube
Key Points
- Short-term straddles on the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) are near historical lows, and put skew has significantly decreased, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment in the options market.
- The relationship between single-stock and index volatility shows single-stock implied volatility coming in more quickly on a relative basis, particularly around earnings season.
- Semiconductor options (SOXX) implied volatility is acting as a potential leading indicator for broader market risk appetite, reflecting changes earlier than the NDX index level.
AI Summary
Kevin Davitt from Nasdaq analyzes options market trends, highlighting low short-term straddle costs on the Nasdaq-100 and decreasing put skew, which suggests a generally bullish sentiment. He emphasizes the value of options data for understanding market risk, noting the relationship between single-stock and index volatility, and the potential of semiconductor options as a leading indicator for broader market risk appetite.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 85% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 85% |