Volatility Trends in NDX Options & Relationship to SPX

Schwab Network | August 16, 2026 at 06:01 PM UTC
Bullish 85% Confidence
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Key Points

  • Short-term straddles on the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) are near historical lows, and put skew has significantly decreased, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment in the options market.
  • The relationship between single-stock and index volatility shows single-stock implied volatility coming in more quickly on a relative basis, particularly around earnings season.
  • Semiconductor options (SOXX) implied volatility is acting as a potential leading indicator for broader market risk appetite, reflecting changes earlier than the NDX index level.

AI Summary

Kevin Davitt from Nasdaq analyzes options market trends, highlighting low short-term straddle costs on the Nasdaq-100 and decreasing put skew, which suggests a generally bullish sentiment. He emphasizes the value of options data for understanding market risk, noting the relationship between single-stock and index volatility, and the potential of semiconductor options as a leading indicator for broader market risk appetite.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 85%
Consensus Bullish 85%