Jeremy Siegel: If oil stays near $80 there's no way the Fed raises rates in September

CNBC Television | August 13, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
Bullish 90% Confidence
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Key Points

  • S&P 500 and Russell 2000 hit all-time highs, with earnings continuing to impress.
  • Recent CPI/PPI reports are favorable, leading to lowered PCE deflator estimates by Goldman Sachs.
  • Siegel predicts no Fed rate hike in September if oil stays in the low $80s, and anticipates a significant boost in productivity from AI in Q3/Q4.
  • AI is expected to reduce costs and increase margins for non-tech firms, driving a rotation from growth to value stocks.
  • He favors value stocks with potential AI gains that haven't yet been realized.

AI Summary

Jeremy Siegel discusses the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 hitting all-time highs, driven by strong earnings and improving inflation data. He believes the Fed will not raise rates in September if oil prices remain stable and sees significant future gains from AI-driven productivity and margin improvements across various sectors, including a rotation into value stocks.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 90%