Hormuz stays blocked as Iran disputes Trump, traffic nears 3-month low

• Daily ship traffic through Hormuz fell to around 13 vessels on Tuesday, the lowest since May 12 and 90% below the pre-conflict average of 130 ships per day
• Iran's conditions for reopening include ending the U.S. naval blockade, sanctions relief, American troop withdrawals, and war reparations following U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran on Feb. 28
• A top IRGC advisor stated Iran's strategy is to prolong the conflict to 'attain deterrence' and demonstrate that 'the American military is weaker than what we perceived'

Summary

Key Development: Iran's Persian Strait Gulf Authority has contradicted President Trump's claims of U.S. control over the Strait of Hormuz, stating the waterway "remains blocked and will not be reopened until Iran's conditions are accepted."

Traffic Data: Ship traffic through Hormuz has plummeted to near 3-month lows, with approximately 13 vessels transiting on Tuesday—down 90% from the pre-conflict daily average of 130 ships. Traffic levels haven't been this low since May 12, according to Kpler data.

Iranian Demands: Iran's Supreme National Security Council has outlined reopening conditions including:

• End to U.S. naval blockade
• Sanctions relief
• American troop withdrawals
• War reparations

Conflict Background: The crisis follows U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, 2026, which triggered the current standoff.

Iranian Position: Mohammad Reza Naqdi, senior advisor to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, claimed "victory is on our side," asserting the U.S. military is "weaker than perceived." He characterized the U.S. approach as lacking strategy and stated Iran's goal is achieving "deterrence" through prolonged conflict and attrition.

Market Implications: The blockage threatens global energy markets, as approximately 21% of the world's petroleum passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The 90% reduction in traffic indicates severe disruption to oil tanker movements and cargo vessel operations, with potential for sustained supply chain impacts and energy price volatility as the diplomatic impasse continues.

Both sides have hardened negotiating positions, suggesting no immediate resolution to the standoff.