Former Fed Gov. Stephen Miran: Inflation is much more likely to be transitory this time

• Correctly measured money supply would have predicted past inflation/deflation and currently suggests monetary policy is neutral.
• Recent higher inflation readings are likely transitory as they are not driven by monetary or fiscal policy.
• Favorable inflation data since June, including a marginally negative core CPI month-on-month print, supports the Fed staying on hold.
• Discrepancies between CPI and PCE inflation are largely due to measurement errors, not actual inflationary pressures.

Former Fed Governor Stephen Miran argues that a correctly measured money supply indicates current monetary policy is neutral, suggesting recent inflation is likely transitory. He believes the Fed should maintain its current stance, citing favorable recent inflation data and stable long-term inflation expectations, while attributing some perceived inflation to measurement errors.