Fed likely to hold as geopolitics limits Warsh's room to maneuver: Peter Boockvar

• The Fed is constrained from hiking rates due to geopolitical volatility in oil prices, the Treasury's front-loading of issuance to the short end of the yield curve, and pending results from economic data task forces.
• The bond market is in a bear market, with rising real interest rates reflecting concerns over government debt and bond supply, rather than increased inflation expectations.
• The 'cost of capital' is now a significant focus for equity markets, potentially impacting multiples for AI tech stocks if interest rates remain elevated or rise further.

Peter Boockvar argues the Fed is unlikely to hike rates due to geopolitical risks impacting oil prices, Treasury's front-loaded issuance, and delayed economic data. He highlights a bond bear market driven by rising real interest rates and concerns over government debt, suggesting the 'cost of capital' will increasingly influence equity multiples, particularly for AI tech stocks.