Don't think Fed should be hiking here, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies

• Oil prices are up significantly for the month, posing a potential threat of market normalization and influencing Fed policy decisions.
• 3Fourteen Research recommends an 'Overweight' position in U.S. Stocks and Commodities, and an 'Underweight' position in U.S. Bonds and Cash/Bills.
• Pies argues that a Fed rate hike would be a mistake, as current inflation is largely supply-driven (oil) and other economic areas like housing and wage growth are decelerating.
• Despite index performance, the average S&P stock is down over 18% from its one-year high, indicating a 'below the surface' correction, with the semiconductor sector showing high implied volatility but potential for recovery.

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research discusses the current market landscape, highlighting oil prices as a key inflation driver that could pressure the Fed. He recommends overweighting U.S. stocks and commodities, believing the market has already seen a significant correction beneath the surface, and that a Fed rate hike now would be a mistake.