"Live" Fed Meeting? Inflation Woes Create Questions Marks for Interest Rate Path

• Rising oil prices (up 10% this week) complicate the inflation outlook, potentially negating recent CPI relief.
• The Fed's next meeting is seen as a 'coin flip' for a rate hike, with market probabilities for July at 35.8% but increasing for later in the year.
• Strong earnings are not surprising the market due to already elevated expectations, leading to a rotation out of mega-cap tech stocks.
• Credit markets are 'well-behaved' overall, but tech spreads are widening due to high capex spending and supply/demand dynamics, raising questions about return on investment.

Analysts discuss the impact of rising oil prices on inflation and the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, noting mixed signals from Fed members. Despite strong earnings, market reactions are muted due to elevated expectations and a rotation out of mega-cap tech. Credit markets show modest widening in tech spreads, driven by high capex spending, but overall corporate fundamentals remain sound.