We don't expect the Strait of Hormuz to reopen until next year, says Kpler's Matt Smith

CNBC Television | July 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
Bearish 95% Confidence
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Key Points

  • The ongoing conflict has no clear end in sight, leading to sustained geopolitical risk for energy markets.
  • Key shipping chokepoints, including the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, are experiencing disruptions, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening now pushed into next year.
  • Despite current WTI crude prices around $89, Smith expects overall oil prices to push higher, with refined products like diesel ($180/barrel) and gasoline ($140/barrel) already under significant strain and expected to worsen.

AI Summary

Matt Smith from Kpler discusses the ongoing geopolitical conflict's impact on energy markets, highlighting prolonged disruptions to key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. He anticipates oil prices, especially for refined products such as diesel and gasoline, to continue rising, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening not expected until next year.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 95%
Consensus Bearish 95%