US Initial Jobless Are at Lowest Level in Decades

• US initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000 for the week ending July 18, well below the 210,000 estimate, signaling a strong labor market.
• Continuing claims were 1,796,000, slightly down from the previous week, with the four-week average for initial claims at 207,500.
• Rising oil prices and increasing US bond yields (2-year, 10-year, 30-year) are raising the odds for a Fed rate hike next week, with traders pricing in over a 35% chance.

US initial jobless claims fell to 187,000, significantly below estimates, indicating a robust labor market. This, coupled with rising oil prices nearing $100 and increasing US bond yields (highest since early 2025 for 10-year), is fueling expectations of a Fed rate hike next week, as the economy shows no signs of slowing down.