US quietly lets Russian oil waiver lapse

• Trump stated the U.S. is monitoring oil prices, which are 'tumbling', before deciding on reimposing sanctions that target Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil to cut Moscow's revenue
• The waiver decision comes after a U.S.-Tehran deal to end a war that caused 'the biggest disruption to global energy markets in history', though it may take months for oil flows to normalize
• The U.S. has allowed similar waivers to expire in recent months only to extend them days later, creating uncertainty about whether this lapse signals actual policy change

Summary: US Quietly Lets Russian Oil Waiver Lapse

Key Development: The U.S. Treasury failed to publish an extension of its sanctions waiver on Russian seaborne oil after it expired at midnight on June 17, 2026. However, the Trump administration has not confirmed whether sanctions will be reimposed.

Background: The Trump administration previously waived U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil to help vulnerable economies during an energy crisis. These sanctions were originally imposed to pressure Russia over its ongoing conflict by depriving Moscow of oil revenue.

Trump's Position: President Trump remained noncommittal on Wednesday at the G7 summit in France, stating "We are looking at that. We're seeing how far the price of oil comes down, it's really tumbling." On Tuesday, he suggested the waiver could end because "oil is now flowing" from the Middle East following a U.S.-Iran deal to end a war affecting regional oil supplies.

Market Context:

• Russia is one of the world's top three oil exporters alongside the U.S. and Saudi Arabia
• The IEA head has called the Iran war the biggest disruption to global energy markets in history
• Iran is expected to resume oil exports following a deal signing this week, though normal flow levels could take months

Important Note: The U.S. has previously allowed the waiver to lapse and extended it days later, creating uncertainty about the administration's intentions.

Next Steps: U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to visit Russia soon for Ukraine-related negotiations.