Wall Street mixed ahead of Fed meeting: 5 things to know before markets open

• The Fed decision comes after a mixed Tuesday session: Nasdaq fell 1.15% and S&P 500 dropped 0.57%, while the Dow rose 0.64% to a second consecutive record close.
• Crude oil near $79/barrel (three-month low) on improved US-Iran supply prospects is easing inflation concerns and supporting bond recovery, giving equities breathing room.
• May retail sales data (8:30am ET) will test the soft-landing narrative—stronger spending could complicate the case for lower yields if inflation remains sticky, while weaker data would support Fed patience.

Market Summary: Wall Street Mixed Ahead of Fed Decision

Market Overview:

U.S. equity futures showed mixed performance Wednesday morning, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising 0.6% and S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, while Dow futures remained flat. Tuesday's session saw the Nasdaq fall 1.15% and S&P 500 decline 0.57%, while the Dow gained 0.64% to a second consecutive record close.

Key Event - Fed Meeting:

The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh's debut decision, is expected to hold rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Market focus centers on Warsh's press conference commentary regarding inflation risks and future policy direction. CME FedWatch data indicates traders still pricing meaningful probability of a December rate increase.

Economic Data:

May retail sales data, releasing at 8:30 AM ET, will provide critical insight into consumer spending strength. Stronger numbers could complicate the case for lower yields if inflation remains persistent, while weaker data would support views that higher borrowing costs are restraining demand.

Sector Highlights:

• Semiconductors: Chip stocks rebounded in pre-market trading after Tuesday's selloff. Broadcom, Micron, and AMD showed strength, supporting Nasdaq outperformance.
• Energy: Crude oil near three-month lows around $79/barrel (Brent) amid interim U.S.-Iran peace framework potentially increasing Iranian oil supply. Lower energy prices are easing inflation concerns.
• Technology: SpaceX gained 3.2% after surpassing Amazon's market value to become the fifth most valuable company.

Market Implications:

Traders face multiple crosscurrents: potential for Fed hawkishness, retail spending strength, and whether the rally can broaden beyond mega-cap technology stocks. Rate-sensitive growth stocks remain vulnerable to any hawkish policy signals.