Oil prices stabilise as investors weigh Iran war end, Hormuz reopening uncertainty

• Brent crude gained 0.6% to $79.43/barrel and WTI rose to $76.53/barrel, recovering from three-month lows hit Tuesday on peace deal hopes
• The interim deal extends an April ceasefire by 60 days and would allow Iran to sell oil upon signing, though full return to pre-war production could take months or years
• U.S. crude stocks fell 8.3 million barrels in the week ending June 12, exceeding the expected 4.6 million barrel draw, according to API data

Oil Markets Stabilize Amid Iran Peace Deal Uncertainty

Oil prices recovered modestly on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, following sharp declines as traders assessed the durability of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement and prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Price Movement:

• Brent crude rose 0.6% to $79.43/barrel
• WTI increased 0.6% to $76.53/barrel
• Both benchmarks had fallen approximately 5% for two consecutive sessions to three-month lows on Tuesday

Key Developments:

An interim U.S.-Iran peace deal was announced Tuesday, with President Trump confirming it would prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Under the agreement, the U.S. would lift its blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran would allow oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively blocked since U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28. The deal extends a tenuous April ceasefire by 60 days.

Market Outlook:

Nissan Securities strategist Hiroyuki Kikukawa projects WTI will remain volatile within a $10 range above or below $80/barrel. Industry officials warn that returning to pre-war production and refining levels could take months or years. Israel has distanced itself from the agreement, adding uncertainty, with recent drone strikes in southern Lebanon drawing rare public criticism from Trump.

Additional Factors:

• U.S. crude inventories fell 8.3 million barrels in the week ended June 12, exceeding the expected 4.6 million barrel draw
• China's crude oil throughput dropped 9.1% year-over-year in May to the lowest level in nearly four years

The deal's terms remain unpublicized, keeping markets cautious despite initial optimism.