Godfather of options says SpaceX will surpass Nvidia, Tesla as early trades arrive
Key Points
- Over 300,000 SpaceX options contracts traded in the first 30 minutes, with more than $400 million in premium and calls outpacing puts by more than 2-to-1
- The most popular contract was the 220-strike call expiring Thursday, following a 16% rally in SpaceX stock, with implied volatility at 135
- Sosnoff cautioned investors to wait a day or two for pricing to become efficient, warning that initial option pricing will likely be 'rich' with markets 'too wide'
AI Summary
Summary:
SpaceX options launched and quickly became the third-most traded single-stock options within 30 minutes, trailing only Tesla and Nvidia, which typically see millions of contracts and over $1 billion in daily trading volume.
Key Figures:
- Over 300,000 SpaceX options contracts traded in the first 30 minutes
- More than $400 million in options premium traded initially, with over $300 million tied to call options
- Calls outnumbered puts by more than 2-to-1
- SpaceX stock rallied 16% following its IPO
- Implied volatility stood at 135
- Most popular contracts: 220-strike calls expiring Thursday and 210-strike in-the-money calls (accounting for $22+ million in premium)
Market Expert Opinion:
Tom Sosnoff, co-founder of ThinkOrSwim and founder/CEO of TastyTrade and Lossdog—known as the "Godfather" of options trading—predicts SpaceX options volume could eventually surpass Tesla and Nvidia to become the most actively traded equity options once high-frequency trading firms reach a volatility consensus. He views this development as positive for both the industry and retail investors.
Caution Advised:
Sosnoff recommends waiting one to two days for pricing efficiency, warning that initial option pricing may be "rich" with excessively wide bid-ask spreads.
Market Implications:
The strong launch demonstrates significant investor interest in SpaceX derivatives, potentially reshaping the options trading landscape and providing new opportunities for both institutional and retail traders. The heavy call buying suggests bullish sentiment among options traders.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bullish | 75% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 75% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 85% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 78% |