US Oil Reserve Hits 43-Year Low as Trump Tries to Limit Iran Fallout

Bloomberg Markets and Finance | June 15, 2026 at 09:15 PM UTC
Bullish 95% Confidence
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Key Points

  • Hormuz reopening is expected by month-end, but full normalization of trade will take several months due to logistics and insurance.
  • US oil reserves are at multi-decade lows (gasoline 11-year low, distillate 29-year low, SPR 43-year low) and continue to decline.
  • Pent-up demand from Asia, especially China, is expected to surge as countries seek to refill and increase strategic reserves, potentially outpacing supply return.
  • Brent crude is projected to make another pass above $100/barrel in July/August due to deep stock draws and high demand season.

AI Summary

Bob McNally discusses the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, noting it will take months for trade to normalize. He highlights critically low US oil reserves and strong pent-up demand from Asia, particularly China, which will drive prices higher. He anticipates Brent crude could surpass $100/barrel in the coming months.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 95%
Consensus Bullish 95%