Dow futures surge 430 points: 5 things to know before Wall Street opens

• Crude oil dropped more than 4% after the Hormuz reopening announcement, putting travel stocks like Delta and Norwegian Cruise Line in focus while energy stocks such as Exxon Mobil face pressure from the fading war premium
• The Federal Reserve meeting this week remains a key test, with markets expecting rates unchanged but watching Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting and economic projections, as at least one 25-basis-point hike is still priced in before year-end
• SpaceX's successful IPO launch eased concerns about mega-listings and sparked interest in potential OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs later this year, while Paramount Skydance gained on DOJ acquisition clearance

Market Summary

Market Movement:

U.S. stock futures surged Monday morning, with Dow futures up 427 points (+0.8%), S&P 500 futures gaining 1.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures jumping 2%. The rally stems from a preliminary U.S.-Iran framework agreement aimed at ending three months of conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Developments:

*Oil Impact:* Crude prices plunged over 4% following the diplomatic breakthrough, with analysts projecting Brent could stabilize around $80 per barrel. The decline benefits fuel-sensitive sectors while pressuring energy producers.

*Sector Winners:* Airlines (Delta) and cruise operators (Norwegian Cruise Line) are positioned to benefit from lower jet fuel costs. Technology stocks also drew early interest in the risk-on environment.

*Sector Losers:* Energy companies including Exxon Mobil and Occidental face headwinds as the war premium fades from crude prices.

*Federal Reserve Focus:* Markets expect rates to hold steady at this week's Fed meeting, marking Chair Kevin Warsh's first session. The two-year Treasury yield fell to a two-week low, though traders still price in a possible 25-basis-point hike before year-end. Lower oil prices may ease inflation concerns.

*Corporate Catalysts:* SpaceX's successful IPO launch boosted sentiment around mega-listings, with OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs potentially following. Paramount Skydance gained after receiving DOJ clearance for its Warner Bros. acquisition.

Risks:

The deal hasn't resolved Iran's nuclear program or Lebanon-Israel tensions. Signing is expected Friday in Switzerland, but diplomatic failure could reverse gains. HSBC strategists emphasize the agreement must prove "credible and lasting" to sustain risk asset support.