What energy insiders in DC are saying about oil prices and a possible Iran deal

• President Trump claimed 200 ships carrying 100 million barrels have passed through Hormuz, averaging 500,000 barrels per ship, though many vessels now disable location tracking or pay Iran an estimated $1 per barrel 'toll' to transit safely
• Pipelines are not a perfect long-term solution to bypass Hormuz shipping risks, as they can be blown up and only work if the territories they cross remain secure
• Energy stocks are outperforming the broader market sell-off, with refiners like Delek U.S. hitting new highs and data center power stocks Vertiv and nVent receiving outperform ratings with 30-40% upside targets from Bernstein

Market Summary: Energy Insiders on Oil Prices and Iran Deal Prospects

Key Developments

Energy insiders gathered at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Forum in Washington, DC, with over 1,000 attendees from 85 countries discussing oil market dynamics amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions.

Strait of Hormuz Situation

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing but remains below pre-conflict levels. President Trump claimed 200 ships carrying 100 million barrels have passed through (approximately 500,000 barrels per ship). Accurate tracking is difficult as vessels disable transponders to avoid detection, with some paying Iran an estimated $1 per barrel "toll." Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed rising traffic, describing momentum as "upticking."

Critical Timeline

A July "open" of the Strait is deemed critical, particularly for refined products including diesel, jet fuel, fertilizers, and lubricants. Storage "tank bottoms" are approaching concerning levels as supply disruption continues.

Infrastructure Implications

While Gulf nations are examining pipeline alternatives for long-term security, Kuwait Oil Company CEO Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah acknowledged pipelines aren't perfect solutions due to vulnerability to sabotage. The Strait remains the primary export route for Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar.

Market Performance

Energy stocks are bucking the broader market sell-off, with the sector showing gains over the past month. Wall Street highlights include:

• Delek U.S. (DK): Mizuho price target of $60
• Vertiv: Bernstein outperform rating, $416 target (30-40% upside)
• nVent: $218 target (30-40% upside)
• Trane: $550 target (22% upside)

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Concerns exist about drawing the SPR below 300 million barrels due to physical extraction limitations from salt caverns.